ONS – latest to release GDP figures amid fears UK may be entering recession

UK inflation beat expectations to hold steady at 4% in January as lower food prices helped offset increases in energy costs, official figures showed. Economists expect a 4.2% rise:

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey signaled that a recession, if confirmed, would be brief, telling the Lords committee on Wednesday that the economy was starting to pick up.

Mr Bailey told the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee: „In our February monetary policy statement, it was balanced – we didn't have a recession in the forecast, but the view we took was at best.

„Frankly, it doesn't take long to mark it either way.

„Going forward — and I think it's more significant in some ways — we're now seeing some signs of a pick-up starting in some surveys, for example … we've had a modest pick-up this year. And then it continues.”

Official figures for the fourth quarter of last year are also expected to show that the economy was weak overall last year.

ONS estimates suggest it did not grow between April and June before contracting between July and September, putting the UK at risk of recession in the last three months.

Welcome to our live blog on the UK economy.

The UK is believed to have slipped into recession at the end of last year after a weak December for the country's economy, official figures are set to show.

The UK economy contracted in the second quarter in the final three months of 2023, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) reveals.

Most economists had forecast a 0.1% decline in gross domestic product (GDP) between October and December.

After a downward revision against the initially estimated zero growth, it will continue the 0.1% contraction in the previous three months.

A contraction in the fourth quarter would mean the UK has slipped into a technical recession, as defined by two or more consecutive quarters of GDP decline.

The Bank of England has kept interest rates at 5.25% for four straight times.