ONS – latest to release GDP figures amid fears UK may be entering recession

Hunt insists the plan to reduce inflation is working despite a 4 percent increase

The UK is thought to have slipped into recession at the end of last year, official figures will show on Thursday.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) is expected to reveal in the final three months of the year that the UK economy contracted in the second quarter.

Most economists had forecast a 0.1 percent contraction in gross domestic product (GDP) between October and December.

This will continue the 0.1 percent contraction in the previous three months, after a downward revision against the initially estimated zero growth.

A technical recession is defined by two or more consecutive quarters of GDP decline.

If confirmed, experts say it will be a recession of „very low sentiment” and likely to be short-lived, with many preferring to describe the UK economy as stagnant.

But the slowdown will be a blow to Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, who has pledged to make growing the economy one of his five priorities.

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Inflation surprises experts by holding steady

UK inflation beat expectations to hold steady at 4% in January as lower food prices helped offset increases in energy costs, official figures showed. Economists expect a 4.2% rise:

Jane Dalton14 February 2024 20:30

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Bank chief says economy flat

Mr Bailey told the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee: „In our February monetary policy statement, it was balanced – we didn't have a recession in the forecast, but the view we took was at best.

„Frankly, it doesn't take long to mark it either way.

„Going forward — and I think it's more significant in some ways — we're now seeing some signs of a pick-up starting in some surveys, for example … we've had a modest pick-up this year. And then it continues.”

Andrew Bailey on the board

(BA)

Jane Dalton14 February 2024 19:20

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The economy was weak last year

Official figures for the fourth quarter of last year are also expected to show that the economy was weak overall last year.

ONS estimates suggest it did not grow between April and June before contracting between July and September, putting the UK at risk of recession in the last three months.

(PA Archive)

Jane Dalton14 February 2024 18:37

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The UK was technically in recession last year, figures are set to reveal

Welcome to our live blog on the UK economy.

The UK is believed to have slipped into recession at the end of last year after a weak December for the country's economy, official figures are set to show.

The UK economy contracted in the second quarter in the final three months of 2023, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) reveals.

Most economists had forecast a 0.1% decline in gross domestic product (GDP) between October and December.

A contraction in the fourth quarter would mean the UK has slipped into a technical recession, as defined by two or more consecutive quarters of GDP decline.

The Bank of England has kept interest rates at 5.25% for four straight times.

(PA Wire)

Jane Dalton14 February 2024 18:26

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