The United Nations on Thursday announced an improved outlook for the global economy from its January forecast, pointing to an improved outlook for the US and several major emerging economies, including Brazil, India and Russia.
According to its mid-2024 report, the global economy is now forecast to grow by 2.7% this year – up from a forecast of 2.4%. Its January report – and 2.8% in 2025. A growth rate of 2.7% would be about equal growth in 2023, but lower than the 3% growth rate in 2020 before the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.
„Our forecast is one of guarded optimism, but with important caveats,” Shantanu Mukherjee, director of the UN’s Economic Analysis and Policy Division, told a news conference launching the report.
Prolonged high interest rates, debt repayment challenges, ongoing geopolitical tensions and Climate risks Especially for the world’s poorest countries and small island nations.
Mukherjee said inflation, which has fallen from its peak in 2023, is a „sign of fundamental weakness” in the global economy that is still lurking, „but a cause for concern in its own right.”
„We have seen inflation continue to be high in some countries,” he said. „Globally, energy and food prices have been trending upwards in recent months, but I think it’s a bit insidious that inflation has remained above the central bank target of 2% in many developed countries.”
The UN’s forecast for 2024 is lower than those of both the International Monetary Fund and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development.
In mid-April, IMF forecast The global economy will continue to grow at 3.2% in 2024 and 2025, the same pace as in 2023. And the OECD in early May forecast growth of 3.1% in 2024 and 3.2% in 2025.
The latest UN 2.3% growth in the US by 20241.4% forecast at the start of the year and a slight increase China It was 4.8% from 4.7% in January. per year.
Despite the climate risks, the UN A report by the Department of Economic and Social Affairs projected primary economic growth for small developing island nations to rise from 2.4% in 2023 to 3.3% in 2024 due to a rebound in tourism.
On a negative note, economic growth in Africa will be 3.3%, down from a forecast of 3.5% in early 2024, the report said. It cited weak prospects with seven African countries — Egypt, Nigeria and South Africa — the continent’s biggest economies. countries in „debt crisis” and 13 countries at „high risk of debt crisis”.
Mukherjee said the lower forecast for Africa is „particularly worrisome because Africa has about 430 million (people) living in extreme poverty and close to 40% of the global undernourished population” and „two-thirds of the countries with high inflation are listed. Our update also covers Africa.”
For developing countries, the situation is not „bad”, but the continued decline and sharp decline in investment growth is a major concern.
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