The British economy is haunted by the specters of Brexit

This week, the UK will see rail strikes as workers demand significantly higher pay rises. Workers on London’s iconic Tube are threatening industrial action from Sunday. Earlier this month, the National Health Service’s (NHS) doctors’ system rejected Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s offer of a 6% pay rise and demanded 35% to catch up with the runaway developed-world base. inflammation It was 8.7% in May, and inflation in grocery bills was in double digits. New rents are 25% higher than pre-pandemic.

This week, the UK will see rail strikes as workers demand significantly higher pay rises. Workers on London’s iconic Tube are threatening industrial action from Sunday. Earlier this month, the National Health Service’s (NHS) doctors’ system rejected Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s offer of a 6% pay rise and demanded 35% to catch up with the runaway developed-world base. inflammation It was 8.7% in May, and inflation in grocery bills was in double digits. New rents are 25% higher than pre-pandemic.

By any economic measure, the UK appears to be in rapid terminal decline. It has long been a dim power with a large place on the global stage. But, like the speed with which a boulder gathers as it rolls down a slope, that trajectory accelerated after the Brexit debacle. The fundamental problem, which long predates the particularly irresponsible Conservative Party government under former prime minister Boris Johnson, is that the UK’s productivity growth has lagged behind that of other developed economies.

By any economic measure, the UK appears to be in rapid terminal decline. It has long been a dim power with a large place on the global stage. But, like the speed with which a boulder gathers as it rolls down a slope, that trajectory accelerated after the Brexit debacle. The fundamental problem, which long predates the particularly irresponsible Conservative Party government under former prime minister Boris Johnson, is that the UK’s productivity growth has lagged behind that of other developed economies.

According to The Resolution Foundation, a think tank, the US, France and Germany are “one-sixth more productive than the UK. [gross domestic product] Work per hour. And the gap has grown over time.” A report by the trust bluntly calls the UK „stagnant”. As the FT’s chief economic commentator Martin Wolf pointed out earlier this month, citing Conference Board data, GDP per employed person was 81% of the US level in 2007. falling to 68% in 2021. Household incomes also lag behind France, where workers famously trade wages for more leisure.

Frankenstein’s monster emerged during this period of moderate decline, and, of course, former Prime Minister David Cameron’s gamble to allow a referendum on Britain’s exit from the European Union in 2016. Sunak has done well to back away from his predecessors’ open hostility in negotiations with the EU, but the consequences of severing these links to dynamic supply chains with Europe are evident everywhere. From manufactured goods to filling grocery store shelves, the UK is dealing with its own variation in non-violent but damaging business terms. Labor shortages are evident everywhere. Immigration queues at Heathrow, for example, regularly run to two-hour waiting times, and last summer hotels were forced to make fewer rooms available despite holiday demand because workers from Eastern Europe were not readily available, leaving them severely understaffed. If many people from developing countries, including India, don’t routinely use its student visa programs to work in that country, I’d bet that retailers in London will take over. While making work visas easier to get is smart, the Conservative Party has doubled down on trying to get tough on immigration. Last month, Sunak donned a bulletproof vest to join a raid on illegal immigrants in Harrow.

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Chung left a legacy too toxic to do much to prevent Tory destruction at the next election. Even nominally 'feel good’ events, such as the 75th anniversary of the country’s famous NHS this month, have become moments of reflection on its decline. A general air of disbelief in reporting by the heavily Murdoch-influenced media doesn’t help. The Times clarified last week that the much-cited figure of 7.4 million people on hospital waiting lists is not for people waiting for surgery, but for „diagnostic tests and results”. Despite this important distinction, the article began with a curious irony, comparing the current predicament of the NHS to Denmark, which has one-tenth the UK’s population, and the problem is that the UK spends far less on CT scanners and MRI machines than any OECD country.

Underinvestment in machinery and manpower seems widespread, except perhaps among elites who indulge in overheated nostalgia and hyper-nationalism. The disproportionate outrage after Jonny Bairstow’s dismissal in this month’s Ashes cricket Test, which went against the spirit of the game, is Wodehouseian in its tragic melodrama. Even the Prime Minister’s spokesperson was forced to weigh in. Australian players were abused as they walked through the long room at the hallowed Marylebone Cricket Club. Wimbledon is usually the epitome of good crowd behavior, but this year’s tournament was marred by cheers for defending champion Novak Djokovic in the semifinals and finals, and lukewarm receptions for world No. 2 Daniil Medvedev and women’s world No. 2 Aryna Sabalenka. Along with other Russian and Belarusian players, they were arbitrarily banned from last year’s tournament.

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Often in India, one finds oneself in a country engaged in trivial debates about its past and present. Both countries’ deluded trade policies lean like Don Quixote on his skinny horse against the logic of the vast cross-border supply chains that underpin East Asia’s exports. London, nicknamed Londongrad for its perennial role as a launderer for foreign money, is even more vibrant in the summer. But England’s cracks are showing.

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