North Carolina voters view the economy and health care as top issues heading into the 2024 general election season, according to a new WRAL News poll.
A recent WRAL poll asked voters to name the issue most important to them. The results showed concerns about criminology education, guns and half a dozen other topics.
Voters agree on the importance of many key issues, but not all. Abortion and immigration are two of the most polarizing topics between supporters of Democratic President Joe Biden and his Republican opponent, former President Donald Trump.
The poll asked voters to rate various issues on a scale of 1 to 10, with higher numbers indicating the issues were more important to them. When asked about immigration, 54% of Trump supporters rated it a top priority, triple the 18% of Biden supporters who said the same.
Similarly, on abortion, 35% of Biden supporters gave it a high priority, more than twice as many as 18% of Trump supporters who said the same. In fact, many registered Republican voters rated abortion as a low priority, ranking last overall among all voters in the state, even though nearly all Democrats and unaffiliated voters indicated it was a medium to high priority issue for them.
Mac McCorkle, a longtime Democratic strategist who now teaches at Duke University, said the results underscore what political campaigns have already anticipated: Abortion will be as important an issue to shift the Democratic base and vote as immigration is for the GOP. The top driving force for its foundation.
But North Carolina is well-known for its close elections, meaning that in addition to voting, elections can be decided by „swing” voters who don't identify with any political party. The results clearly show that North Carolina's elections in November may come down to how the national economy performs over the next few months, McCorkle said.
„If the economic numbers continue to be good for Biden, it makes him more competitive in North Carolina,” McCorgill said. „Obviously, if they stagnate, he has a real problem. So I think that's the biggest opportunity we have to look at.
Beyond polarizing issues like immigration and abortion, voters tended to find more agreement on other issues to prioritize — even if they or their preferred candidates had different solutions to address the concerns.
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Other recent WRAL News polls released this week show close races in the marquee matchups for president and governor. Trump leads Biden 50% to 45%, with 5% of voters undecided, and in the race for governor, Democrat Josh Stein leads Republican candidate Mark Robinson 44% to 42%, with 15% undecided.
The WRAL poll, conducted in partnership with SurveyUSA from March 3 to March 9, has a confidence interval of 4.9 percentage points. A confidence interval is similar to a margin of error, but takes into account additional factors and is considered by some analysts to be a more accurate measure of statistical certainty.
As with any poll, the numbers represent a snapshot in time. SurveyUSA president Ken Alber said he expects the presidential race to tighten significantly in the next few months, given that Trump has been campaigning non-stop for years while Biden has had to take a break from campaigning to serve as president. He said he wouldn't be surprised to see the gap between the two narrow as the Biden campaign ramps up.
Alper noted that both Stein and Trump, despite being separate parties, are leading among independents in their races — noting that each side can focus on two key issues to gain the other's support among those swing voters.
„Independent voters are going to be really key,” he said, adding that „Stein could give some 'reverse coattails' and some real help to Biden, as well as pull [other Democrats] above.”
crunching the numbers
The economy emerged as the top issue in the poll, with 42% of likely voters giving it the highest rating of 10 out of 10. Health care came in second — its average score tied with the economy, though fewer people gave it a go. Highest priority – crime and public safety.
Next is national security and international affairs — likely driven by high-level debates over issues such as whether to continue supplying Ukraine and Israel in their ongoing wars against Russia and Hamas, or how to address China's growing wealth and influence.
Education, immigration and guns came next, followed by mental health and drug issues. Finally, abortion and the environment were linked.
A closer look at the issue-specific results released Wednesday revealed some interesting angles:
- Young voters are less likely to list crime and immigration as a top issue, but they are more likely than older generations to place importance on mental health and health care in general.
- Middle-aged voters paid more attention to guns than younger generations or older voters.
- Senior citizens were a focus group on crime, immigration and international affairs.
- Immigration was the top issue for white voters, followed by the economy and national security/international affairs.
- Among black voters, no issue is more pressing than health care; Crime and the economy were far behind.
- Hispanic voters are largely unconcerned about immigration policy, with most giving it a medium priority score, and only 17% rating it as a top priority. And 45% of Hispanic voters gave the environment a high priority, more than any other group.
- Women tended to show more urgency than men on almost every issue in the poll, with a higher priority in all categories — with a gap widening in particular on abortion and health care in general.
Abortion is a factor in the gubernatorial race
Republicans have fought for decades for tougher abortion laws — and won that fight in 2022 when the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade and its protections for abortion rights. It set in motion a raft of tough new abortion laws in Republican-led states across the country, including North Carolina, over the past two years.
While immigration is increasingly important to federal politics and presidential races, abortion is now a state-level issue. It will be one of the primary topics of debate in this year's gubernatorial race.
Robinson has promised to sign even tougher abortion bans into law if elected governor. Stein has vowed to veto any attempt by the Legislature to further restrict abortions — which are now banned in North Carolina at 12 weeks in most cases. It is Roe v. Only half of what was allowed under Wade, but it is now one of the most lenient laws anywhere in the South.
Alabama's Supreme Court recently took a hard line on in vitro fertilization, or IVF, after banning abortion in all cases. Despite pressure from some social conservatives to do the same in other states across the country, North Carolina House Speaker Tim Moore told reporters Wednesday that the legislature does not plan to target IVF in North Carolina this year; The next legislative session begins in April.
Moore also said there will be no attempt to further restrict abortion access this year — but that could change next year, perhaps depending on who becomes governor.
„If there is a conversation about it, it will happen next year after I'm not here,” said Moore, who is heading into his last year as a state legislator after winning a primary earlier this month for a seat in Congress. Represents parts of the state between Charlotte and Morganton.
If state GOP leaders move to pass more restrictions on those issues, especially banning IVF, McCorkle said, Democrats could find a big boost in North Carolina.
„That could be a real shock to the system,” he said. „For example, [former] Vice President Mike Pence used artificial insemination. So it captures more than just a liberal democratic base.”