COP28: What sea level rise will look like in cities that hosted global climate summits


When world leaders and representatives gather in Dubai Annual UN Climate SummitA new analysis shows how the host cities of previous summits could be inundated — if not completely submerged — by rising seawater.

The relentless increase in planet-warming pollution has already resulted in severe droughts, deadly floods and the rapid melting of glaciers and ice caps around the world. And as temperatures rise, scientists say a steady rise in global sea levels will continue for decades.

The Analysis from the Climate Center, a non-profit climate research group, explains the risk if countries fail to halt the planet’s accelerating warming trend. A recent report by the United Nations shows that the world is currently on a warming path 2.9 degrees.

Using peer-reviewed sea-level rise projections and local elevation from the Climate Center’s models, the findings show stark contrasts between the world we know and our high-tide future. – Industrial levels.

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„Decisions made at COP28 will shape the long-term future of the Earth’s coastal cities, including Dubai,” said Benjamin Strauss, Chief Scientist and CEO of Climate Central.

Climate scientists have reported that worldwide 1.2 degree Celsius warming It is on track to exceed 1.5 degrees of warming in the coming years, above pre-industrial levels – a critical threshold beyond which humans and ecosystems will struggle to adapt, scientists say.

In 2015, at COP21 in Paris, more than 190 countries ratified the Paris Agreement, limiting global warming to below 2 degrees Celsius, but preferably to 1.5 degrees.

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The world’s current trajectory to 2.9 degrees may be unsustainable for coastal communities, low-lying countries and small island states around the world.

„The survival of these places and their heritage depends on whether government and industry leaders can agree to cut carbon pollution hard and fast enough to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius,” Strauss said.

2023 is already set to be the hottest year on record A statement was issued on Thursday By the World Meteorological Organization. Every month from June to October sets new global monthly temperature records By wide marginsAt the same time, sea temperatures also peaked.

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These blistering global temperatures are causing glaciers and ice sheets to melt at alarming rates, adding significant amounts of water to Earth’s oceans. Even Antarctica, the planet’s most isolated continent, is witnessing unprecedented melting events. There is now a chance that some large glaciers will melt Inevitable And global sea-level rise could have devastating implications.

About 385 million people currently live in areas inundated by oceans at high tides, even if global warming drastically reduced pollution, according to the Climate Center.

If we limit warming to 1.5 degrees, sea level rise would still affect the land where 510 million people live today. But if the planet exceeds 3 degrees, the high-tide line could encroach on land inhabited by more than 800 million people, according to the latest found in the study.

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But while these scenarios may be centuries away, scientists say that with every degree of warming, the effects of climate change worsen.

At COP28, global leaders will discuss how Reduce planet-warming fossil fuels To prevent the possibility of future increase under water. This year will be the first time countries will hold talks at climate talks New score card It shows how serious they are about their climate goals — and that the window to reduce climate pollution is „rapidly shrinking.”

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