What: Although preliminary data for 2023 looks like Rhode Island's economy is headed for recession, revised labor market data paint a better picture, says Leonard Lardaro, an economist at the University of Rhode Island. While the pace of the cycle is modest with current conditions index values in expansion territory at 7 to 58 over 12 months, some indicators point to strength in 2024 as well. With January 2024 CCI value of 58, Lardaro mentions Retail, Private Service. Job creation, government employment, US consumer sentiment, total productive hours, manufacturing wages and labor force participation all had strong showings. The creator of the Current Conditions Index also noted some weak areas, including single-use permits, benefits exhaustion, new claims for unemployment insurance and employment service jobs. Despite these weak areas, Lardaro says the Rhode Island economy is overall better than first thought, and concludes that the state is not experiencing a real or „statistical” recession. „It's better to be stuck in first gear than in reverse,” he said.
How: Use the attached information, including summaries and charts prepared by Lardaro, for news reports. He is available for broadcast and print interviews. Lardaro will be blogging about the new labor data in the coming weeks. Additional information and historical data available online: http://www.llardaro.com/current.htm.
When: March 12, 2024
For information: Leonard Lardaro, Office, 401-874-4128, Home, 401-783-9563.
Don Bergantino, URI Department of Communications and Marketing, 401-874-4147.
Background: The Current Conditions Index, developed by Lordaro, measures the strength of the current economic climate in Rhode Island by tracking the behavior of 12 indicators.
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