(CNN) – If the current pace of global warming goes unchecked, it will push billions of people out of the „climate niche,” exposing them to dangerously hot conditions and temperatures where humans can thrive, according to a new study released Monday.
The study, published in the journal Nature Sustainability, assessed the impact on humans if the world continues on its projected path and warms by 2.7 degrees Celsius by the end of the century, compared to pre-industrial temperatures.
Factoring in both expected global warming and population growth, by 2030 about 2 billion people will be outside the climate zone, facing an average temperature of 29 degrees Celsius (84 degrees Fahrenheit) or higher, and about 3.7 billion people will live outdoors. Main place in 2090.
Timothy Lenton, one of the study’s two lead authors, said a third of the world’s population could be found living in climate conditions that do not support „human resources”.
„This is a profound reshaping of the planet’s surface habitat, and it could lead to a large-scale reorganization of human habitability,” Lenton, director of the University of Exeter’s Global Systems Institute, said in the video shared. Company.
According to the report, the annual average temperature ranges from 13 °C (55 °F) to about 27 °C (81 °C). Outside this window, conditions can be very hot, very cold, or very dry.
Less than 1% of the world’s population is currently exposed to dangerous heat, with average temperatures of 29°C or higher, and climate change has already displaced more than 600 million people.
„Most of these people lived near the colder 13°C peak and are now 'in the middle’ between the two peaks. Although not dangerously hot, these conditions would have been very dry and historically did not support dense human populations,” said study co-author Chi Xu, a professor at Nanjing University.
If the Earth warms by 2.7 degrees Celsius, India, Nigeria, Indonesia, the Philippines and Pakistan will be among the top five most populous countries exposed to dangerous heat, the study found.
The entire population of some countries, such as Burkina Faso and Mali, as well as small islands already at risk from rising sea levels, will face unprecedented high temperatures.
In the worst-case scenario, if the Earth warms 3.6 or 4.4 degrees Celsius by the end of the century, half of the world’s population will be out of the climate zone, which the report calls „an existential risk.”
According to the report, living outside of prime locations can lead to increased mortality rates because exposure to temperatures above 40 degrees Celsius is dangerous, especially if the humidity is high, as the body does not cool down to a temperature that can maintain normal functions.
Extreme heat can reduce crop yields, and increase conflict and the spread of disease.
Scientists have long warned that warming above 1.5°C would cause catastrophic and irreversible changes. As climate hotspots shrink as global temperatures rise, large parts of the population will be more frequently exposed to extreme weather events, including droughts, storms, wildfires and heat waves.
Experts say there’s still time to slow global warming by moving away from burning oil, coal and gas and toward clean energy, but the window is closing.
Every part of a degree makes a difference, Lenton said. „For every 0.1 degree Celsius of warming above current levels, about 140 million people will be exposed to dangerous heat.”
Earlier this month, the World Meteorological Organization announced that there is a 66% chance of at least one year of temperatures being more than 1.5 degrees Celsius warmer than pre-industrial levels over the next five years.
„We’ve left it too late to properly tackle climate change, and now we’re at a point where we need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, or accelerate decarbonization fivefold, to achieve the rate of change we need in the global economy,” Lenton said.
This story was originally published on CNN.com, „Global temperature rise could find billions of people in places where human life does not thrive,” the study says