Two-thirds of chief economists predict a continued rebound in global economic growth
Eighty-two percent of chief economists expect the global economy to strengthen or remain stable this year, a new report said Wednesday. Also, the share of chief economists predicting a deterioration in global conditions fell to 17 percent from 56 percent in January, according to the World Economic Forum’s latest Chief Economists Outlook released Wednesday.
However, they are wary of geopolitical and domestic political tensions, which could cloud the horizon.
97 percent of respondents expect geopolitics to contribute to global economic volatility this year. And 83 percent say domestic politics will fluctuate in 2024, the year when half the world’s population will vote.
„The latest Chief Economists Outlook welcomes tentative signs of improvement in the global economic environment,” said Sadia Zahidi, Executive Director of the World Economic Forum. „This underscores the increasingly complex landscape in which leaders navigate. There is an urgent need for policy-making that not only revitalizes the engines of the global economy, but also seeks to lay the foundations for more inclusive, sustainable and resilient growth.”
Uneven growth
Although growth expectations have improved, they remain inconsistent. The Census The outlook for the U.S. reveals a significant boost, where nearly all chief economists (97 percent) expect moderate to strong growth this year, up from 59 percent in January.
Asian economies also appear strong, with all respondents reporting at least moderate growth in the South Asia and East Asia and Pacific regions.
However, expectations for China are slightly less optimistic, with three-quarters expecting moderate growth and only 4 percent expecting strong growth this year.
In contrast, the outlook for Europe remains bleak, with nearly 70 percent of economists predicting weak growth for the remainder of 2024. Other regions are expected to experience broadly moderate growth, showing little improvement from the previous survey.
Overcoming challenges
The survey highlights the increasing challenges facing businesses and policy makers. According to 86 percent of respondents, tensions between political and economic dynamics will be a growing challenge this year, while 79 percent expect greater complexity in decision-making.
Factors expected to influence corporate decision-making include the overall health of the global economy (100 percent), monetary policy (86 percent), financial markets (86 percent), labor market conditions (79 percent), and geopolitics (86). percent) and domestic politics (71 percent). Notably, 73 percent of economists believe that companies’ growth objectives drive decision-making, more than double the proportion citing the role of companies’ environmental and social goals (37 percent).
Long term prospects
Most chief economists are upbeat about the prospects for a continued recovery in global growth, with nearly 70 percent expecting growth of 4 percent over the next five years (42 percent within three years). In high-income countries, they expect growth to be driven by technological change, artificial intelligence, and the green and energy transition. However, opinion is divided on the impact of these factors on low-income economies.
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