A weak China will not overtake the US economy until 2080

Mr Sheets, who served as undersecretary for international affairs at the US Treasury under President Obama, predicts China's economy will average 4% growth over the medium term, up from 10% before the financial crisis.

He said: “Challenges stem from high debt levels, pressures in the property sector, an aging population and geopolitical headwinds.

„The government has responded by fostering advanced manufacturing, high-tech manufacturing and green infrastructure. But whether this push will be enough is an open question.

Citi said setbacks in the past two years mean the Chinese economy will now overtake the US in the „early 2040s”. A year ago, the bank hoped it would become the world's largest by the „mid-2030s”.

Mr Sheets said it was now „credible” that China's economy would not overtake America's „until 2080”. He added: „We now believe that Chinese overtaking is 'possible', but we no longer see it as 'inevitable'.”

Analysts have predicted for years that China will overtake the United States to become the world's largest economy thanks to its rapid growth rates and slow expansion in the West.

Goldman Sachs began forecasting in 2003 that China would overtake the US by 2041.

Back then, China was only 15 percent the size of the United States. However, its economy grew rapidly after joining the World Trade Organization (WTO) at the turn of the millennium. As a result, many observers began to predict that China would overtake the United States this decade.

However, Beijing's zero-covid policies have driven a major slowdown in recent years. Attitudes toward Beijing have also hardened in Congress, with both Republicans and Democrats calling for the severing of economic and financial ties with China, including the elimination of lower tariffs on Chinese goods introduced when it joined the World Trade Organization.

READ  Accurate data will drive growth of creative economy - Minister

Dodaj komentarz

Twój adres e-mail nie zostanie opublikowany. Wymagane pola są oznaczone *