El Niño, the natural climate phenomenon that alters global weather patterns, has officially returned after four years, threatening to add to already overstocked food. inflammation.
Last week, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA’s) Climate Prediction Center said: El Nino conditions are already in place And it is expected to „gradually strengthen” over the next six to nine months, ushering in a new period. Extreme weather For most of the planet.
“There is a high probability [of another strong El Nino period],” said Professor Harald Kunstmann of Germany Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU) Karlsruhe Institute of Technology. „If this happens, we can expect the same climate extremes and anomalies usually associated with this event.”
El Niño, Spanish for „little boy,” is characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean near the equator.
It brings floods to the United States, tropical storms in the Pacific, and drought to many parts of the world, including South Africa.
These effects cause severe disruption to fisheries, agriculture and other sectors of the economy and are known to worsen the effects. Climate change.
In 2016, El Niño contributed to the hottest year on record, and scientists worry that it could set new record-high global temperatures.
Earlier this month, researchers from the European Union’s Copernicus Earth Observatory reported that global surface air temperatures have risen by 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels for the first time.
This is the limit that world leaders agreed to on global warming at the 2015 Paris Climate Summit.
„Approaching the 1.5°C temperature threshold in June is very unusual,” Kunstmann told DW. „So, we’ll soon exceed this limit, not just for a few weeks, but for a long time.”
Trillions of dollars in economic loss
The economic impacts of previous El Niño seasons often persist even after the most extreme climate conditions have passed.
Following El Nino in 1982-83, the financial effects were still felt for half a decade, totaling $4.1 trillion (€3.7 trillion), according to research from Dartmouth College in the US.
After the 1997-98 El Niño season, the damage to global economic growth was $5.7 trillion, researchers reported in the American journal Science.
„We can say with certainty that societies and economies are completely impervious and resilient,” said Christopher Callahan, a PhD student in Dartmouth College’s Ecology, Evolution, Ecosystems, and Society program. 14 years after El Nino, maybe even more.
Dartmouth researchers found that the 1982-83 and 1997-98 El Niño events reduced US gross domestic product (GDP) by about 3% in 1988 and 2003. In countries like Peru and Indonesia – where Agriculture Responsible for up to 15% of GDP – bleeding from 10% in 2003.
Dartmouth researchers estimate that the negative economic effects of the recent El Niño season could reach $3 trillion between now and 2029.
„The economic impact starts with the fishing industry, which is heavily affected by higher sea temperatures,” Kunstmann told DW. „Then it hits large agricultural areas in Africa, South America and even many parts of North America. Then, if harvests are bad and infrastructure is damaged by storms, the insurance industry is also affected.”
Food and energy inflation increases
Modeling by Bloomberg Economics released this week found that earlier periods of El Niño added nearly 4 percentage points to non-energy commodity prices and 3.5 points to oil prices, weakening. Global food security.
Bloomberg found that inflation was 0.75 percent higher in Argentina and Brazil, and half a percent higher in the Philippines and India.
With fears that it could be the latest El Niño phase hot And ever-more expensive, it also has the potential to extend high food inflation, analysts say.
The peak of post-Covid, post-stimulus inflation may be over, but it could take years to return to the 2% inflation target set by the US and European central banks.
Growing warnings about El Nino have already helped coffee, sugar and cocoa prices rise sharply in recent weeks, Germany’s biggest private lender Deutsche Bank said in a research note last week. Other food commodities are expected to follow as harvests are affected by severe weather events.
„[Rising prices] This can have a particularly negative effect on emerging markets, where food typically makes up about a third of consumer spending. Their geographic location makes them more exposed to climate changes such as floods, making an El Niño event more likely,” Deutsche Bank analysts wrote.
In India, where agriculture is the cornerstone of the economy and the annual monsoon is critical to food production, policymakers speak of the need to be vigilant.
„Close and continuous monitoring … is absolutely necessary, especially as the monsoon outlook and the impact of El Niño remain uncertain,” Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das said recently.
Edited by: Uwe Hessler