come again „Crash or Land” A financial planning program that checks the health of the US economy. Whenever a major new data point emerges — whether it's a jobs report, Inflation numbers Or the central bank's latest move – we ask the sharpest minds in wealth management a question: Does this bring us closer to recession or a soft landing?
This week we look at the building blocks of the US economy: jobs.
On Friday, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released Employment report February came warmer than many economists expected. Last month, the economy added 275,000 jobs, including in health care, government, food services, transportation and other areas. It marked the third month in a row that the economy gained more than 200,000 jobs.
Later that day, President Joe Biden trumpeted the gospel, echoing some of his language State of the Union address.
„Three years ago, I inherited an economy on the brink. Now our economy is the envy of the world,” Biden said in a statement. Report. „We added 275,000 jobs last month — nearly 15 million since I took office. … Across the country, the American people are writing the greatest comeback story ever told.”
But the news is not all good. The BLS reported that unemployment rose to 3.9% last month from 3.7% in January. That's an increase of 334,000, bringing the total number of unemployed Americans to 6.5 million — up from 6 million a year ago.
read more: Inflation has eased, so why is Wall Street nervous?
In terms of new jobs, what's good for the economy now may spell trouble in the long run. as The Federal Reserve thinks so As they begin to cut interest rates, they look for data that shows the economy is cooling. A warm labor market could give the opposite impression, keeping the central bank on hold for now.
„Taking policy control too soon or too much could lead to a reversal of the improvement we've seen in inflation and ultimately require even tighter policy. Return inflation to 2%,” Fed Chairman Jerome Powell told Congress Last week. „We will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook and the balance of risks in considering any changes to the target range for the policy rate.”
How should we look at the new job numbers? Are they a welcome sign of a healthy economy or an omen for long-awaited interest rate cuts?
For answers, we turned to the best-informed analysts and economists in wealth management. Here's what they said:
