You won't be hearing from Fed members about tomorrow's inflation report

Consumer inflation expectations will rise in February

11 minutes ago

Consumers may be losing hope that price pressures are easing, according to a new survey.

The New York Federal Reserve's February survey of consumer expectations forecast consumer inflation to be 3.0% from a year earlier. However, their feelings about inflation worsened more and more. Consumers see inflation at 2.7% over three years and 2.9% over five years, both higher than the January results.

Consumers still expect their wages to stay ahead of inflation, with household incomes estimated to grow 3.1%, unchanged from the last survey.

While consumers did not expect much relief in food and gas prices, the survey showed that medical care cost inflation eased to 6.8%, the lowest level since September 2020. Inflationary expectations for rents have also fallen further. -3-year low of 6.1%.

The consumer price index will give some insight into how inflation fared in February and comes after the latest inflation gauges showed prices were higher than economists expected.

— Terry Lane

Federal Reserve Officials 'Blackout Period' This Week

39 minutes ago

Things may look a bit quieter this week as members of the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee made no speeches or statements on the state of the economy.

Federal Reserve officials will now enter a so-called „blackout period” in which they are prohibited from making public statements about the upcoming meeting for nearly two weeks.

The blackout period, which formally began on Saturday, will last until March 21, a day after the Federal Open Market Committee meeting concludes and the central bank will announce its latest decision on interest rates.

The blackout periods begin two Saturdays before the central bank meeting and last until the Thursday after that. The only exception to the blackout period is when Fed Chairman Jerome Powell addresses the media after the board's two-day meeting to deliver prepared remarks about the decision.

The central bank says these blackout periods are designed to ensure the team can stay on the same page with communications that members create effortlessly at each meeting.

This week, investors will not have time to digest comments from central bank officials when the consumer price index on February inflation is released tomorrow or consumer spending data is released later in the week. These are two key areas of the economic picture that could influence the central bank's recent „data-driven” approach.

Federal Reserve officials had a lot to say in the days leading up to the blackout, with several comments reiterating the need for patience on interest rate cuts. Officials have said they need to see more evidence that inflation is moving downward on a sustainable path before voting to cut interest rates.

— Terry Lane