The simulation test demonstrates a way to mitigate extreme weather events

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RIKEN scientists have demonstrated a way to make small changes in weather systems to prevent or at least reduce the severity of extreme weather events such as rain. They did this by taking advantage of the chaos inherent in such systems. With this work, they hope to develop ways to prevent the extreme weather events that have become more common in recent years.

According to Takemasa Miyoshi, head of the research team, „It is generally accepted that we should learn how to predict severe weather events so we can prepare for them, but it is also desirable to want to mitigate the events. . . and that is what we are interested in achieving.”

His team took up the challenge as part of the Japanese government’s Moonshot-Millenia project, and in previously published work, they have described the possibility of controlling the climate by initiating small changes in the weather as it develops. At the time, they used a simple Lorenz 63 weather model with only a few variables, and showed that it was possible to induce small perturbations in the system to keep it on one side, called the „butterfly model.”

Their new study is published Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics Goes beyond the simple model. In it, the group adopted the Lowrance 96 model. Basically, it sets a weather variable for 40 points along a line of latitude around the Earth, and looks at how each of these points changes in relation to neighboring points throughout the year. Once or twice a year, the points show large variations, which correspond to extreme weather events. As part of a controlled simulation experiment, team members were able to eliminate extreme events by making small changes to the 100-year model.

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Controlled simulation testing took advantage of the chaotic nature of the system; Small perturbations—for example, centimeter/second changes in wind speed that can prevent hurricanes with many times more powerful winds—if strategically done early, can prevent them from entering unwanted territory, meaning they stop intensifying. Happenings.

According to Miyoshi, „Using the inherent chaos in systems like weather is attractive. In the past, we typically looked at geoengineering projects to modify the climate to counter global warming. However, this entails large costs and associated risks. This is ideal. The minimum required for small-scale but extreme weather events. If we can control interventions.

„In the future, we plan to continue our experiments with more realistic weather models. It is important to note that there are ethical, legal and social issues, such as the risks involved in making the changes compared to their potential benefits.”

More information:
Given, Sun et al., Control simulation experiments of extreme events with the Lorenz-96 model, Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics(2023) DOI: 10.5194/npg-30-117-2023

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