Ottawa Jobs in July: What’s the Impact?

Ottawa saw some growth in its overall job count in July, according to Statistics Canada, but saw a rise in the unemployment rate.

Employment rose to 650,600 in July from 645,500 workers in June. The unemployment rate rose to 6.3 in July from 6.0 in June, and roughly 2,400 people started looking for work.

The labor force numbers reported by Statistics Canada paint a bleak picture for young and new Canadians. In Ontario, the unemployment rate for 15- to 24-year-olds was 16.4 percent, compared to 6.7 percent for all workers 15 and older across the province. The unemployment rate for recent immigrants across Canada was 12.6 per cent in July.

What do these latest statistics mean for the local economy? Pedro Antunes, chief economist of the Conference Board of Canada, spoke with CTV’s Katie Griffin on CTV News at Six.

The interview below has been edited slightly for clarity.

Kathy Griffin: What do these numbers tell you? Are they saying we’re headed for a recession?

Pedro Antunes: I don’t mean recession. I think what we are seeing is the impact of monetary policy taking a firmer grip. There’s no doubt that higher interest rates have had a big impact on consumers across Canada, and we’re starting to see the effects on the labor market. Actually, we are not losing jobs; What we have seen is that jobs have been declining for the last three months. At the same time, we have very strong immigration, mostly non-permanent residents, i.e. those coming as temporary foreign workers or foreign students, which has allowed the labor force to swell, albeit at an employment level. So, what we’re seeing is unemployment rates and labor markets slowing down.

Griffin: What sets Ottawa apart for job gains?

Antunes: Last year, Ottawa played very well. We’ve seen very, very strong job growth in the Ottawa-Gatineau region and public service is obviously driving a lot. We also have an IT sector, retail operations, tourism, all of these sectors are doing a little bit better in the region, but we’re seeing the same kind of impact – basically strong immigration, international and interregional, city and a sluggish labor market here. The unemployment rate in Ottawa rose to 6.2 per cent from 5 per cent overall, nationally.

Griffin: Statistics show that freshers and young adults are spending more time looking for work, so why is that a sign of weakness in the economy?

Antunes: The good news is that looking at the overall labor market, it’s still looking good. The biggest impact has been on young workers between the ages of 15 and 24, where we see the biggest increase in the unemployment rate. And newcomers, of course, have a much harder time finding work, especially when we’re talking about international students who can join the workforce and put hours into the workforce. Why is the economy so difficult? It’s an impact. Fortunately, we haven’t seen any significant weakness and are still holding up overall. It’s, again, this dichotomy, with this fragility that we see in the labor market here.