Intelligent aliens may be rare in the universe, new study suggests

According to a new study that recasts the Drake equation using probabilistic logic, the universe must either be teeming with life or contain no life at all.

A general principle in Search for extraterrestrial intelligence (SETI) means that if we find technologically advanced aliens, there will probably be many, many more cases. Alien life Two cases (we and New Discovery) are out of existence.

In a new paper, astronomers David Kipping of Columbia University in New York and Geraint Lewis of the University of Sydney describe how this logic works based on the probability distribution introduced by biologist and mathematician JBS Haldane in 1932. Earth-like exoplanetsAll with similar characteristics. Considering their slight differences, we expect life to arise in all or none of them; There is no obvious reason why half of these are the same Planets For example, life supports and half does not support.

Haldane prior U-shaped probability distribution. The most likely scenarios are either a universe with no other life, or a crowded universe with ETI everywhere. (Image credit: David Kipping/Geraint Lewis)

Various effects can be shown on a U-shaped graph with probability on the y-axis and area of ​​planets on the x-axis. The two ends of the U-shape correspond to no or very few planets with life and many planets with life. A U-shaped trough corresponds to the lowest probability, representing half of the planets with life.

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