Manchester City have confirmed the signing of Argentine forward Julian Alvarez from Atletico Madrid.
The 24-year-old has scored 36 goals in 103 appearances in all competitions for Man City and won six major trophies.
„Today I say goodbye to this wonderful club, with great emotion,” Alvarez said Official Club Website. “It’s been a great two years. During this time, I grew and learned a lot as a player and as a person.
“Manchester City will always have a special place in my heart. I wish you every success in the future and I will support the club wherever I am.
Here, Alex Cable Assessing how Alvarez’s departure will affect the champions
How will that affect Man City?
„He’ll be back,” was Pep Guardiola’s negative response to rumors of Alvarez heading out the door.
„I trust him but he said decisions will be made together in the news. Now he needs to rest and he will come back when he feels ready to come back.
„When he comes back, I will hug him and congratulate him for Copa America 2024, Paris 2024 Olympics and we will start working together. This is the reality.”
Those were not the words of a manager who expected Alvarez, who started 31 Premier League matches for Manchester City last season, to be on his way to Atletico Madrid within days of Argentina’s Olympic exit.
Guardiola will want to keep his versatile youth forward. Man City are weak without him.
Alvarez’s stats suggest he will be a big loss
Alvarez has been a standout player in his two years at the Etihad Stadium, graduating to an impact substitute in 2022/23 and a first-team regular during Kevin De Bruyne’s injury last year.
And his raw numbers are sensational. In just 5,902 minutes of football across all competitions, (equivalent to 65.6 full matches) Alvarez amassed 49 goals and assists.
Those are elite numbers.
He was one of Man City’s best scorers and creators last season, a specialist for De Bruyne or Erling Haaland.
Only Phil Foden created more chances than Alvarez’s 67, only Foden and Holland had more of his 19 goal involvements, and he passed the ball more than anyone else (137).
Alvarez creativity and Man City rank 23/24
| Player | Opportunities are created | Target engagements | passes through |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alvarez | 67 (3rd) | 19 (3rd) | 137 (1st) |
Each Man City player’s importance to the team is best captured by FBRef’s calculation of the minus goals conceded when he is on the pitch. They ranked Alvarez second behind Rodry.
Man City player +/- goals when on pitch, PL 23/24
| Player | Total |
|---|---|
| Rhodri | +61 |
| Julian Alvarez | +52 |
| Ederson | +51 |
| Manuel Akanji | +49 |
| Kyle Walker | +49 |
In bad news for Man City supporters, Alvarez has clearly improved over time, as his 90 stats indicate.
Alvarez figures to hit 90 over the past two seasons
| the season | Goals/Assistance | touching | Opportunities are created | Progressive passes | passes through |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022/23 | 0.6 | 40.1 | 1.1 | 2.3 | 1.6 |
| 2023/24 | 0.7 | 52.9 | 2.3 | 3.5 | 4.7 |
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Without those goals and assists, Man City’s already thin squad is weakened.
City don’t have many creative options outside of the first XI, so it would take another injury to De Bruyne or Hollande for Guardiola’s side to keenly feel the loss of Alvarez.
There is no other way to explain the sale. Man City’s title chances are gone.
Alvarez would not have been in the first XI in 24/25
However, Alvarez may not get much game time in 2024/25.
De Bruyne’s renewed fitness will severely limit the 33-year-old Alvarez’s chances going forward.
De Bruyne significantly outscored his team-mate in 2023/24 when you look at every 90 numbers:
Alvarez v De Bruyne PL Stats for 90 in 2023/24
| Goals/Assistance | touching | Opportunities are created | Progressive passes | passes through | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvarez 23/24 | 0.7 | 52.9 | 2.3 | 3.5 | 4.7 |
| De Bruyne 23/24 | 1.0 | 81.1 | 4.3 | 8.2 | 10.0 |
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Alvarez is a good stand-in for De Bruyne, but clearly the Belgian is first-choice, and the two are unlikely to play together in the same midfield.
They played together eight times only twice in 2024: a 3-1 win at Brentford, a goal to come back from down and a 1-1 draw with Chelsea, in which Alvarez returned the favor in the 64th minute for City.
Alvarez didn’t start as often as eight or 10, and until De Bruyne got injured again, the chances of him dethroning Holland for a starting spot were slim – despite Man City’s potential advantage.
Guardiola’s side won all nine Premier League matches last season, with Alvarez in 9th place; The Argentine’s creativity and tendency to break away from the front makes him a great tactical fit to lead the line.
The best example of this was his role in the 4-1 thrashing of Aston Villa, reducing Holland to just 15 touches in Villa’s 1-0 win earlier this season.
On the surface, Alvarez’s departure won’t affect Man City deeply this season, as De Bruyne and Haaland are always likely to replace him.
But De Bruyne isn’t getting any younger and there were several occasions last season when Alvarez outplayed Haaland at No.9.
He could have been a future star in a couple of offensive positions.
How do Man City replace Alvarez?
After De Bruyne’s return in January, Alvarez started a further 11 Premier League matches, appearing in central midfield and up front in both divisions.
He was Guardiola’s main utility player; A sharp, creative and intelligent individual who could fill in smoothly and efficiently as a point of difference during Man City’s run-in.
Changing such an ability is not easy.
Interestingly, Joao Felix, who was offered to Man City as part of the deal that took Alvarez to Atletico Madrid, would have been a better replacement.
Clearly City don’t agree, perhaps not trusting Felix after a less than impressive loan spell at Chelsea, but he’s the right type of player based on profile.
Alvarez is brilliant on the half-turn, taking smart positions between the lines as well as finishing clinically after appearing in the right place in the box.
It’s a combination of rare qualities in Felix: instinctive movement, brilliant reading of the game and technical artistry anywhere in the final third.
A possible replacement is Eberechi Eze, a summer target for Man City. It may not be the same, but Eze has experience playing in a deeper midfield role as well as on the wing.
However, Eze is definitely not a hub. Unlike Alvarez, he is not a three-in-one footballer who is capable of world-beating goal-scoring and assists numbers while dropping in and out of the side.
Frankly, there aren’t many around. No wonder Guardiola believes he will return.