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Good morning and welcome back to the US Election Countdown. Today we cover:
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The Trump-Vance Economic Agenda
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Changing dynamics within the Trump family
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An inflection point in money betting
There is a shift in the Republican economic agenda. Once the party of free-market conservatism, Trump’s selection of JT Vance as running mate has confirmed his embrace of economic populism.
Check out what’s here The Trump-Vance Economic Agenda can be like [free to read]:
1. Trade tensions
Trump’s trade wars have been a hallmark of his first term — but much of his administration is divided over how far to take international tariffs. Republican lawmakers also provided additional counterweight.
Now the party has largely rallied around Trump’s anti-globalization and anti-immigration views. This could make American business wary of losing foreign markets and migrant workers.
2. Tax deductions. But how deep?
The $1.7tn tax cuts Trump enacted in 2017 will expire next year – unless he returns to the White House and makes them permanent.
However, in the updated plan, some Republicans want the cuts to be less embarrassing for the wealthy and businesses. There has even been discussion of raising the corporate tax rate, according to Doug Holtz-Eakin, director of the American Action Forum, a right-wing think tank.
3. New study for big business
As anger grows with corporate America, Republicans’ unwavering support for big business is no longer a given.
Anger is often directed at corporations’ progressive social goals (such as the standoff between Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and Walt Disney). But the latest FT-Michigan Ross poll Americans believe that corporations are more to blame for their economic woes than politicians.
4. Mixed messages on deregulation
A new Trump administration will move quickly to roll back pollution and emissions regulations in sectors like energy and climate.
However, in other areas, the answer is not so straightforward. Vance has been advocating tougher antitrust policies that could push back Big Tech. He joined Democrats such as Elizabeth Warren in calling for paybacks to regulators in the event of bank failures.
Campaign Clips: Latest Election Headlines
Behind the scenes
Among Trump’s Milwaukee entourage, there was one notable absentee: former first lady Melania Trump.
Melania delivered prime-time speeches during the 2016 and 2020 Republican conventions, but chose to stay out of the limelight this time around. (Though Trump officials insist he will appear sometime this week.)
His absence is part of a dynamic within the Trump family. Top Trump White House aides Ivanka and her husband, Jared Kushner, are staying away from the 2024 campaign.
According to Kate Anderson Brower, author of several books about the White House First Ladies:
Trump women have a lot of scars.
„Ivanka was criticized by many Democrats who thought she would be able to anger her father in the White House, and she couldn’t. Either she didn’t want to, or she couldn’t,” she said.
Trump’s daughter-in-law Laura Trump stepped in to fill the void. The 41-year-old former television producer, who became co-chairman of the Republican National Committee earlier this year, delivered a keynote speech Tuesday night.
Donald Trump Jr. also saw his stock rise. He was instrumental in getting the former president’s eldest son, JT Vance, to run for the Republican Party.
Mick Mulvaney, Trump’s acting White House chief of staff from 2019 to 2020, said, “Donald Trump has always relied heavily on his family, and he’s going to continue that.
It may be different family members in the second period. . . But his children will always be his senior advisors.
Datapoint
We’ve been reporting on Biden’s fundraising advantage over Trump for months, but we’ve reached an inflection point. After the second quarter, the Republican Party is now on track to outscore its Democratic rival.
Trump-affiliated groups made more than $400 million between April and June, according to federal filings. This is more than three times the total contribution for the first quarter and roughly double the total contribution for the same period in the 2020 election.
During the 2016 campaign, groups supporting the former president brought in more than $400 million in total. Full campaign, according to our analysis.
The sudden drop comes as small donors respond to Trump’s criminal convictions and billionaires increasingly flock to his campaign. Notably, on May 31, the day after he was convicted by a New York jury, Trump broke his record for the most contributions in 24 hours.
And second-quarter numbers are expected to increase as more political action groups report later this week.
We expect to learn more about the president’s official campaign and one of the major Biden superbags in the next few days, donations to Biden groups. However, Democrats fear the president’s fundraising could struggle following his weak performance in the June 27 debate.
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