In the first half of the year, China’s exports reached US$1.71 trillion, up 3.6 percent year-on-year, while imports rose 2 percent.
„China’s trade data shows the contrast between a cyclical recovery in global demand and a more challenging domestic economic recovery,” said Gary Ng, senior economist at Natixis Corporate and Investment Bank.
Although exports could be a rare stabilizer of China’s economy in 2024, there is still a limit due to geopolitics and inadequate demand-oriented policies.
Despite the global technology cycle and green energy wave supporting exports of electronics, automobiles and green technology products, a sluggish recovery in real estate and a lack of fiscal policy support continue to curb consumption and investment, Ng added.
„Although exports could be a rare stabilizer of China’s economy in 2024, there is still a limit due to geopolitics and insufficiently demanding policies,” he said.
Exports have been a bright spot in the past six months, supporting China’s aim to reach its annual economic growth target of 5 percent this year.
Elsewhere, China’s June trade surplus was US$99.05 billion, compared with US$82.6 billion in May.
In terms of trading partners, China’s exports to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations rose 15 percent in June.
Meanwhile, exports to the US rose 6.6 percent, marking a second straight month of positive growth.
Exports to Russia rose 3.4 percent year-on-year in June, while exports to the European Union rose 4 percent.
Elsewhere, car exports rose 18.24 percent year-on-year to 486,000 units in June.
According to Wen Bin, chief economist at China Minsheng Bank, annual export growth will be around 5 percent before China’s exports slow in the middle of the year.
Increasing global trade protectionism and the potential re-election of US President Donald Trump are expected to put pressure on China’s future exports, Wen said on his China blog on Monday.
„If exports fall, it could increase domestic excess capacity, leading to lower prices and higher real interest rates. This could reduce both corporate investment and consumer spending, causing the property market to continue to fluctuate and see a bottom,” he said.