Caught between US and China: Philippine Daily Inquirer

Manila – Today is Philippines-US Friendship Day, a day to commemorate the longstanding friendship between the Philippines and its former colonial master, the United States.

Today is Independence Day in America, its 248th anniversary. For most Americans, including 4.5 million Filipino-Americans, it will be a day of parades, fireworks displays, cookouts and other social activities.

For 18 years since the United States relinquished its control over the Philippines on July 4, 1946, the same date has been observed as Independence Day in our country.

In 1964, then-President Diotado Macapagal changed the date to June 12 to coincide with the day General Emilio Aguinaldo declared the Philippines’ independence from Spain in 1898. The idea is that freedom is earned, not given by someone else.

Since then 12th June is observed as an official holiday.

More respect for America

The change in dates has not diminished or held America in high esteem by most Filipinos. To this day, it remains a preferred destination for immigration and advanced academic studies.

Despite past disagreements on foreign affairs and economic policies, the United States has until now been seen as a big brother who helps its former colonial ward in times of need.

The previous administration tried to distance the Philippines from US influence by promoting closer diplomatic and economic ties with China.

Unfortunately, then-President Rodrigo Duterte’s expectation that playing toe-to-toe with China would result in massive financial aid and assistance did not materialize. Except for three planned infrastructure projects, the promised manna from the Middle Kingdom did not come.

Worse, maddeningly, he publicly denied and belittled the favorable decision of the International Court of Arbitration on the Philippines’ rights to certain islands in the West Philippine Sea occupied by China.

Preferential treatment

That priority for China took a 180-degree turn when President Marcos came to power in 2022. He renewed and strengthened ties with the United States and agreed to grant American military access to several strategic areas of the country.

Without being overt about it, the expansion of US military presence in the country is aimed at countering China’s aggressive actions in this part of the world.

Against the Philippines, whose rights over its exclusive economic zone have been (and continue to be) violated by China in a clear show of violation of the arbitral award over the West Philippine Sea.

With no match for China’s military might, no support from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, and no support from other members who have silently succumbed to China’s economic influence, the Philippines has run to no one but the United States for help.

Paradigm shift

Mr. Marcos’ paradigm shift in relations with the United States has won the approval of the majority of Filipinos.

A survey report released last April by research and analysis firm Oculum found that 43 percent of the Philippines should align with the United States, while only 3 percent said the Philippines should remain with China.

According to Joseph Mercado, Oculus’ chief statistician, „Low levels of trust and relatively high levels of mistrust in China may be due to geopolitical tensions, economic competition, regional disputes, or political and human rights concerns.”

That level of mistrust is expected to increase in the face of reports that the Philippine military is using violent means to prevent Filipino fishermen from fishing off the Bajo de Masinlac reef, as well as the Philippine military supporting its troops aboard a ship stationed at Ayung’s Shoal.

An efficient strategic move

Only time will tell if the lead for the US will be in the best interests of the Philippines or, as some critics of the move have claimed, put the Philippines in the middle of a potential armed conflict between the US and China.

As the chief architect of Philippine foreign policy, Mr. Marcos must navigate his way between protecting the country’s territorial waters and not provoking China to assert its sovereignty over the islands it historically claims as its own.

While aligning the Philippines with the United States is seen as a smart strategic move against China’s bellicose actions, the president must ensure that in doing so, the country is not used as a testing ground for military might. Two countries.

It’s a tight squeeze that calls for vision and skillful maneuvering.