Scientists have developed an equation using artificial intelligence (AI) that can predict when the worst unpredictable rogue waves will hit.
Rogue waves, also known as „monster waves,” are at least twice as big as other waves around them. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). These freak waves, which occur every day around the world, are highly unpredictable and can destroy ships that encounter them.
According to NOAA, rogue waves form when ocean waves pass over each other, creating giant walls of water. However, the exact mechanisms of why and where they appear are unclear.
But using 700 years worth of ocean data, including historical records and data from buoys at 158 locations around the world, researchers have now developed a formula to predict these „sea monsters.”
„Basically, it’s very unfortunate when one of these giant waves hits,” said the lead author. Dion HafnerNiels is a former doctoral student at the Bohr Institute Report. „They are caused by a combination of many factors that, until now, have not been incorporated into a risk assessment.”
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on paperPublished Nov. 20 in the journal PNAS, Häfner and colleagues mapped the variables that make up rogue waves and combined them into a model using AI to determine the likelihood of a rogue wave forming.
The team trained a neural network using historical wave data, according to the paper. It developed a system that automatically learns the causes of rogue waves.
But the AI’s methods were hidden in a black box — meaning scientists couldn’t tell how the AI did its job. So Hafner’s team used symbolic regression, another form of machine learning that created an equation when fed data rather than a prediction — helping researchers understand how the AI arrived at its predictions.
„Our analysis demonstrates that anomalous waves occur all the time. In fact, we recorded over 100,000 waves in our dataset that can be defined as rogue waves,” said study co-author Johannes GemrichA research scientist at the University of Victoria in Canada said in a statement.
„This is equivalent to 1 monster wave occurring every day at any random location in the ocean. However, not all of them are extreme monster waves.”
Rough waves can pose a serious danger to ships. Last year was a deadly rogue wave A cruise ship collided near AntarcticaOne person was killed and four others were injured.
They can reach large sizes compared to the surrounding ocean. A rogue wave – Dubbed The Ucluelet wave – which appeared off the coast of Canada in 2020, was 58 feet (17.6 meters) high and three times the height of surrounding waves, making it „probably the most intense rogue wave ever recorded,” Zemrich said. Report In 2022.
A freak wave as large as an 84-foot-tall (25.6 m) monster has been recorded near Norway in 1995 — but they were closer in height to other nearby waves, Live Science previously reported.
This new equation effectively shows the recipe for a rogue wave, Hafner added, and can better protect passenger and cargo ships from disaster as they travel around the world. Firms can use algorithms to predict when and where the right cocktail of factors to create a rogue wave might arise and look for an alternative.