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The recent hype of the Gaza ceasefire talks – with now-familiar sticking points and appeals from around the world – obscures the harsh truth about months of efforts to end the Israel-Hamas war and hostage-free scores.
Any deal requires the signatures of two people: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Hamas leader Yahya Shinwar.
They are determined opponents, poor negotiators and know that the outcome of negotiations will profoundly shape their legacy. In Chinwar’s case, it meant life or death.
Both have strong incentives to end the war. But they may feel that they gain by waiting a little longer, and they may feel that war is preferable to a deal that falls short of their demands.
Here’s a look at the two leaders and the hurdles they face.
What does Netanyahu want?
Netanyahu has promised „total victory” over Hamas and promised to return all hostages in Gaza — goals that many believe are incompatible.
He is under enormous pressure from the families of the hostages and much of the Israeli public to make a deal to bring them home, even if it leaves the embattled Hamas intact. The United States, which has provided major military aid and diplomatic support to Israel, is also pushing for such a deal.
But Netanyahu’s ruling coalition relies on far-right ministers who want to permanently reoccupy Gaza and have threatened to topple the government if he concedes too much. It would force early elections that could oust him from power while he is on trial for corruption.
Under Netanyahu’s watch, it will prompt a detailed reckoning of the security failures surrounding the Oct. 7 attack in southern Israel by Hamas-led militants that killed about 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and kidnapped another 250. Netanyahu has rejected demands that the government hold an investigation until the end of the war.
The longer the war drags on, the more likely Israel is to achieve something like victory — killing Sinwar, rescuing more hostages — and Netanyahu must adjust his political stance and reshape his legacy. But this comes with risks as the number of soldiers killed in action rises almost daily as Israel is increasingly isolated by the suffering inflicted on Palestinians.
In the endgame, Netanyahu has clashed with his own defense minister. Israeli media, citing unnamed senior security officials, expressed frustration with Netanyahu, particularly his demand for continued control over two strategic corridors in Gaza. Some accused him of sabotaging the talks.
Both Israel and Hamas say they have accepted in principle different versions of the US-backed cease-fire proposal, while suggesting changes and accusing the other of making unacceptable demands.
Yohanan Plesner, head of the Israel Democratic League, a local think tank, acknowledged the anger toward Netanyahu in the local press and sections of Israeli society, but said Shinwar bore most of the blame for the impasse because he was not too keen on reconciliation. .
„If we see that Sinwar is serious about getting a deal, it will force Israel and Netanyahu to expose their cards,” Plessner said. The current situation is “almost like a bargain with itself”.
What does Chinwar want?
Sinwar wants to end the war – but only on his terms.
Israel’s offensive has killed more than 40,000 people, displaced 90 percent of Gaza’s population and destroyed its main cities, according to local health officials. Hamas has lost thousands of fighters and its militant infrastructure.
Chinwar’s only bargaining chips are the 110 hostages still in Gaza, a third of whom are believed to be dead. And if he hopes to salvage anything resembling a victory with the October 7 offensive, he needs more than a temporary pause in the fighting.
It begins with a pledge that Israel will not resume the war once some or all of the hostages are released. Israel must withdraw from all of Gaza to ensure that the lasting impact of the October 7 attack is not a permanent reoccupation of the territory. Freeing high-profile Palestinian prisoners as part of a deal is a sacred cause for Shinwar, a longtime prisoner freed in an exchange. And he needs guarantees that Palestinians can return to their homes and rebuild them.
„Shinwar is very interested in ending the negotiations with either a ceasefire or a prisoner exchange, because in both cases, Sinwar will be the winner,” said Nabi Awada, a Lebanese political analyst and former A militant who spent years in an Israeli prison with Shinwar.
There are risks for Chinwar in drawing up negotiations: and hostages are likely to die in battle or be ransomed. The death, destruction and suffering in Gaza will continue, and may fuel Palestinian discontent with Hamas, with political implications.
Sinwar, who is at the top of Israel’s most wanted list, could be killed at any moment. But given the centrality of martyrdom to Hamas’ history and ideology, he may feel that outcome is inevitable — and preferable to a deal that looks like failure.
Would any external pressure help?
Egypt and Qatar have acted as key mediators with Hamas, but their influence remains limited.
Any pressure exerted on Hamas’s exiled leadership is unlikely to have much effect on Sinwar, who was appointed overall head of Hamas after Ismail Haniyeh was killed in Iran. Sinwar is believed to have lived in a tunnel under Gaza for the past 10 months, and it is unclear how much contact he has with the outside world.
The US has provided critical military support to Israel during the conflict and shielded it from international calls for a ceasefire. Earlier this year, President Joe Biden suspended hundreds of 2,000-pound (900-kilogram) bombs and pressured Israel not to occupy the southern city of Rafah — which it did anyway.
US electoral politics may also blunt US pressure. Biden has shown little interest in pressuring Netanyahu, and Vice President Kamala Harris has offered no concrete policy changes. Donald Trump has urged Israel to end its offensive, but may still accommodate Netanyahu during his presidency.
Any U.S. arms embargo would be even more limited when Israel faces a possible retaliatory attack from Iran over the killing of Haniyeh. Instead, the United States has poured military assets into the region, partly taking pressure off Israel.
Sinwar may have hoped last month’s targeted killings of Haniyeh and a top Hezbollah commander would escalate the war. But with both Israel and Hezbollah applying the brakes following heavy firefights over the weekend, that appears less likely.
The cease-fire talks were all over the place, punctuated by fleeting moments of hope.
Mediators have spent recent weeks trying to hammer out a bridging plan with Netanyahu, but it remains a work in progress. Not yet submitted to Chinwar.